ONYXPLAYBOOK
THE PLAYBOOK — READ ONCE, USE FOREVER

How to actually use this thing.

ONYX grades every hitter on tonight's slate with nine weighted models and calibrated probabilities. This page explains every number you'll see, in order, and finishes with the parlay curriculum — how to pair legs the right way.

1. The score2. The nine models3. Probability & fair price4. Reading the board5. The tools6. Pairing legs7. Discipline

01The score — one number, 1 to 99

Every hitter gets a score per market: HR (home run), TB (2+ total bases), HIT (1+ hit), and ONYX — the composite (45% HR + 35% TB + 20% HIT). 50 is a league-average spot. The scale is built so hitters at 70 genuinely go deep more often than hitters at 60 — verify it yourself on the Results page, graded nightly, misses included.

APEX80+rare — the model is pounding the table
SHARP70-79strong play, top of the card
SIGNAL60-69real edge, the working zone
FLAT50-59league average — no push either way
FAINTunder 50the model is fading this spot

A hitter marked no read has too little tracked data — every input defaulted to average. Skip those; they are not sneaky value.

02What builds the grade — nine models

The HR score is a weighted blend. The weights are earned: each model was backtested against real outcomes before getting a share, and anything that failed validation was thrown out.

Power50%barrel rate, HR-per-PA, exit velocity — the engine. Nothing matters more than how hard and how often a bat squares the ball.
Form12%the last 7-14 days of real results blended with season expected stats. Hot is real, but skill anchors it.
Matchup8%platoon splits against tonight's starter's throwing hand.
Pitch Vuln7%how hittable the opposing starter is — barrels and xwOBA allowed.
Pitch Match7%the hitter's history vs the exact pitch types this starter throws.
Park6%the yard's HR factor — Coors and Yankee Stadium are not Petco.
Weather4%temperature and wind fused into an HR index. 95 degrees with wind out is a different sport.
Lineup Spot3%batting 3-5 means protection and more competitive counts.
Bullpen Exp3%a short starter means more innings of exposed middle relief.

The five micro-bars on every board row (PWR FRM MCH PRK PIT) show the biggest drivers at a glance — tap the row for the full breakdown.

03Probability & fair price

Members see a calibrated probability next to each score — “22% to go deep” means hitters in that band actually homer about 22% of the time in our graded history. That calibration is checked nightly on Results.

The fair price converts that probability to American odds: 22% is roughly +355. That is the break-even line. If a book pays longer than fair, the bet has positive expected value; shorter, and you are paying juice on our own number. This one habit — always compare the book's line to fair — is most of what separates winning players from action junkies.

04Reading the board in 30 seconds

1
Slate strip

proj slate HR tells you if it is a launch night (3.0+ per game average = loaded) or a grind. Adjust aggression accordingly.

2
Game xHR + ENV

each game header shows its expected HR total and environment score. 2.6+ xHR games are where stacks and overs live.

3
MY PICKS strip

your starred bats with live status — IN means the lineup is confirmed, PROJ means projected. Never bet a PROJ without re-checking near lock.

4
Hitter rows

score chip, badges, micro-bars, probability + fair price. Tap for the full scout: radar, splits, matchup history, recent form.

5
Trend chips

+N / -N vs yesterday. A bat that jumped 5+ usually got a better park, a softer arm, or confirmed into the heart of the order.

05The tools — one question each

Everything lives on Research, which shows each tool's top answers so you rarely need the deep pages. When you do:

Kill Shotwhich starters get barreled — attack the most hittable arms.
Hotwhose last 7 days are scorching — form you can ride.
Duepower bats in cold windows — regression darts with a real engine.
Stackswhich lineup to attack 2-3 deep in the same game.
Weatherwhere the air is helping — heat plus wind out = launch pad.
Bullpenshort starters mean soft middle innings — late-game value.
MarketsTB and HIT boards with the same probability treatment as HR.
Battersthe full analysis table — every qualified bat, filter and sort.

06Pairing legs — the parlay curriculum

Parlays multiply probabilities, which means they multiply mistakes. Most slips lose before they are placed because the legs were paired wrong. The rules:

RULE 1 — KNOW THE REAL MATH.

Two independent 60% legs: 0.60 x 0.60 = 36%. Three: 22%. Four: 13%. Every added leg cuts your win chance by that leg's own probability. The Parlay Panel on the board does this live — combined probability and fair odds for your slip. Book pays +450 and fair says +420? Real bet. Book pays +450 and fair says +600? You are donating.

RULE 2 — ONE BAT PER GAME (USUALLY).

Two hitters in the same game against the same starter live or die together — one dominant pitching night kills both legs at once. Spreading legs across games makes them truly independent, which is what the multiplication math assumes. The exception is a deliberate same-game stack: two bats in a 2.8+ xHR game against a Kill Shot arm are positively correlated — if the starter is getting hit, both benefit. Books know this and shade same-game payouts, so price it consciously.

RULE 3 — BUILD BY INTENT, NOT SCORE-SORTING.

The Auto-Parlay modes exist because “take the top 3 scores” is lazy. SAFE takes the highest probabilities, one per game — the 2-leg SAFE is the right default most nights. VALUE pairs strong non-obvious grades (60-73) that books have not fully shaded. DART takes raw-power longshots — small stakes only, never more than one dart per slip. A sound 3-leg: two SAFE + one VALUE. A degenerate 3-leg: three DARTs.

RULE 4 — MIX MARKETS TO CUT VARIANCE.

HR legs are 10-25% events; HIT legs are 55-70% events. Three HR legs is a lottery ticket. HR + HIT + HIT keeps a real payout while multiplying your win rate. The Markets page carries the HIT and TB boards.

RULE 5 — CONFIRMED LINEUPS ONLY.

A projected bat who ends up benched is an automatic dead leg. The MY PICKS strip shows IN or PROJ live — check it before lock, every time.

2-LEG (DEFAULT)SAFE + SAFE, different games, at least one HIT/TB leg. Target combined 30-40%.
3-LEG (STANDARD)2 SAFE + 1 VALUE, three games, max one HR leg. Target 15-25%.
4-LEG (SMALL STAKES)3 SAFE + 1 DART, four games. Accept the variance — this is entertainment-grade.
STACK (CORRELATION)2 bats, same lineup, 2.8+ xHR game vs a Kill Shot arm. Price it as one bet.

07Discipline — the part nobody wants to read

The model is calibrated, not psychic. A 25% HR play misses three times out of four by design — the edge shows up over weeks, not innings. Flat-stake singles on SHARP+ plays with fair-price discipline beat any parlay strategy over a season; parlays are the dessert, not the meal. And when the slate is thin — low proj HR, no SHARP plays — the strongest bet is no bet. Research, not betting advice; play within your means.

ONYX model v1.0.0 · nine validated models · calibrated nightly against real results · see the receipts